Chances are that the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) will return to its erstwhile alliance with the BJP at a time when the Sukhbir Singh Badal-led party has run out of allies at the state as well as the national level.

Out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Opposition Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) doesn’t seem to be a viable option for the SAD. The party appears to have been left with fewer options ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the plausible one seems to be reconciliation with the time-tested ally, the BJP.

While most of the once Third Front members have joined the INDIA, the SAD’s alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Punjab has failed to stand up to the expectations of the Akali Dal as the Mayawati-led party’s vote share in the state, where 32 per cent of the population belongs to the scheduled castes, has come down to a measly 2 per cent, denting the Akali Dal’s dream of its revival in the state.

Speaking on the prospects of the SAD, Prof Ashutosh Kumar, an expert on Indian politics, said in the present scenario, Akali Dal would like to be part of the NDA, but it depends on the seat adjustment for the Lok Sabha polls and a place in the Union Cabinet.

Prof Kumar, chairperson, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, said in a four-cornered contest in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a weakened SAD has no chance of winning but for an alliance with the BJP, the AkalI Dal will have to agree to part with more than three to four seats for the saffron party which is unlikely to settle for less than six of the 13 seats in the state.

“Akali Dal can never join the Congress due to its ideological and historical differences. On the other hand, the BJP too needs a partner in Punjab. But the proposed Uniform Civil Code (UCC) is a live issue. As a Sikh party, Akali Dal has always stood for a separate law for the Sikhs. Badal senior (late Parkash Singh Badal) had even burnt the page of the Constitution bearing Article 25 where Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists are clubbed with Hindus. And UCC looks like the main issue in the 2024 elections,” Prof Kumar told The Statesman.

He, however, conceded that both the parties could find a way out despite the disagreement over the UCC, after all politics is the art of possibility. The SAD is opposing the proposed implementation of the UCC saying it would have an adverse impact on minorities and tribal communities in the country.

Akalis can never join the INDIA as it won’t like to share the platform with its archrival, the Congress. But entry into the NDA too is not without an irritant. If the two parties are going to have a fresh alliance, SAD will have to accept the BJP as a dominant partner, Prof Kumar added.

For the record, while the BJP is preparing to contest all 13 seats, the SAD is also sticking to its current alliance partner, BSP, for now.